Former Tiananmen Square student leader and Chinese dissident Wu'er Kaixi, who remains on China's "most wanted" list, once again was welcomed by the Taichung American Chamber of Commerce as guest speaker at its monthly dinner meeting on April 25.

During his informative and enjoyable presentation--on the state of Taiwan-China-United States relations following recent presidential elections--Wu'er made a strong argument for his belief that immediate reunification between China and Taiwan was not favored by Jiang Zemin and China's current leadership, despite their unwavering position against the island's independence.  War between the two sides was also improbable for a variety of reasons, he added.

The former Tiananmen Square student leader, who gained world fame in 1989, was speaking in a capacity as a senior research fellow and cross-Strait program coordinator for the Taichung-based Industrial Development Foundation and as a political consultant and commentator with his own radio program.

China's leaders originally preferred to let the Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan "problems" remain unchanged because the blame for these situations could be pointed elsewhere other than the Communist party and were easier to manage than under reunification, he said, pointing out that this stance changed after the British insisted on negotiations over Hong Kong's future in the early 1980s.  However, more recent actions by Chinese leaders indicated that they hoped to preserve the status quo for the time being, avoiding reunification and Taiwan independence, he said.

"What does Jiang want?  Reunification?  Of course, but not that badly.  He mostly wants to avoid blame.  Anti-independence is not pro-reunification...Look at [China's] treatment of the 'three links' with Taiwan, which have been drawn out for 10 years.  They issue preconditions for every negotiation because they know that Taiwan will deny these.  It's a well-coached script," he said, noting that China's counter-proposals to 'three links' feelers from Taiwan's transportation ministry have been much very conservative.

Despite Chen's strong efforts to establish an image of stability, domestically and towards China, China's leadership did not trust him, given his and his party's past record on the independence issue.  Therefore, they sought US assurances on the matter which would be sufficient for them, he said.

Wu'er said he believed the most dangerous time between the two sides--the Lee Teng-hui era--had passed and said that China's current interests of globalization, economic growth and WTO entry did not favor a war.  Four conditions could lead to war, of which only one--Taiwan independence--involved the island itself, he said.  The others were an international conflict of some form with the United States, where an attack against the island would be seen as an indirect attack on US interests; a power struggle within the Communist party; and an opposite situation where Jiang became so powerful that he believed he could act with impunity.

The former student leader moved to Taichung after marrying a city native and gained citizenship in time to vote in presidential elections.  He noted that he was extremely pleased with the results of Taiwan's presidential elections and praised the rational, even happy, response by most residents to the elections, despite the fact that about 60 percent of voters did not see their candidate's victory.